TC American Presidential Election Thread

It's not too bad, New York is worth around 35 points and California's wroth even more, and Obama is guaranteed those states..

 

Theres 538 votes to get... first to 270... Obama is supposed to win somewhere around 300-350. But you have to keep in mind a lot of the Southern states get their votes counted faster, and are extremely Republican so they are "locked up" early.
Democrats tend to be strong on the East and West Coast... but the NE area tends to count pretty slow as they have very large populations.

All the states "locked" in the next hour or two will almost all be "safe" States -- where anyone could have told you what that State would be voting beforehand.
In terms of "safe" ... Obama is supposed to lead 224 - 110.
That leaves 204 up for grabs, of which estimated 87 lean for Obama and 53 lean for McCain (but could swap) ... and 64 nobody knows * will happen. McCain basically needs to win all 64.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

As I type this...
District of Columbia, Illinois, New Hampshire (some thought this one MIGHT switch to McCain), Connecticut, Massachusets, Maine, Delaware, Maryland to Obama
Oklahoma, Tennessee to McCain

Obama 103 - McCain 34

 

21 - 3

I always thought Virginia was a red blood state but they've gone for Obama, so I must have been completely wrong.

Oh I see it's just gone 25 - 21 to Obama, so I imagine it will be quite erratic.

 

Obama's now in the lead :icon_mrgreen:

84-34 :icon_mrgreen:

 

McCain - 34 (Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma)
Obama - 103 (Vermont, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Deleware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine)

Happy boys? :icon_mrgreen: I'll update the states in a second. They just aren't allowed to comment on the states before they close, and a lot of liberal states just closed. Pennsylvania is in there for Obama, which could be the nail for McCain.

*edit* Added the states

 

Very happy

 

I'm lost with it all

 

:icon_mrgreen:

 

If you're confused... this breaks it down about as easy as you'll get it.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Election Night Thread, 6:00 PM

 

I wrote a (very) basic explanation of the Electoral College earlier in this thread. Basically, no red states have turned blue and no blue states have turned red... everything has gone as expected. You just have to know which states lean which direction to know if the results are shocking or not. There are 538 votes up for grabs, so when it was 16-3 it meant * all.

*edit* Read McNaka's link instead.

 

Ahh I didn't see Pennsylvania (PA) went Obama afterall... that was expected, but only as "leaning" Obama and a lot of people said McCain needed to win Pennsylvania.

So consider that a major blow for McCain... he just went down a goal.

PA is worth 21 electoral votes btw.

 

It's huge... personally I think it's over now. I really think he's going to take Florida, too.

 

Thanks Diegan and McNaka

I was a bit thrown with McCain's lead but now realise its partly due to all the states being diffrent time zones etc so the red states came i first etc

 

Virginia is representative of the entire country now because of some recent demographis shifts. They are very, very affluent in the north near DC, very rural in the middle and in the southwest, they have a large military base in the southeast and also have a very large African American population in the southeast as well. I think that which direction Virginia goes will be very telling. It's basically like the entire country cut up into mini-size as far as demographics go.

And McNaka - Obama is LEADING IN APPALACHIA in North Carolina. That is simply mind blowing. One of the counties has over 75% of the vote in, as well. And it's not like there's going to be any urban areas or different places to make the vote suddenly catch up... these are very even-keeled counties where virtually everybody is the same. Unbelievable.

 

I wouldn't go that far yet... Kerry was President for a couple hours too.
CNN called SC when it was up 11% to Obama too

 

uh oh... Bush attorneys at work in Florida...
I bet all of those ballots are rejected ...

 

That's because he was up because of the African American vote... which has pretty much been completely accounted for in SC. It's just not enough of a gap to keep if you know the state, which I do very well. It's already 55/45 McCain as we speak.

 

Have you seen the ballots they are using at some parts of Florida (In southeast Florida, no less, dumb *)? Holy * will they ever learn!?!?!?!?

It's the dumbest thing I've ever seen, it's like two separated parts of an arrow, and you have to fill in the middle separated part with your pen to make it look like the "arrow is pointing at your candidate." What every happened to simple bubbles? Like on school tests? Those work pretty well.

 

Oh I know why it's was called... just pointing out the pseudo-science mainstream media uses to "call" these states. They were calling a lot of them with "0%" of votes in. Or just now... they called an upset for Dole in NC, with 8% votes in.

Now most of these won't change because most polling is relatively accurate... but we know from 2004 that some of them can and may change.

Yea I saw 'em... ridiculously stupid way to fill out a form.
Whoever made that decision needs to resign or something... it's so stupid, I can only wonder if they weren't trying to get votes discounted.

Alabama to McCain (not surprising)

 

McCain - 58 (Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia)
Obama - 103 (Vermont, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Deleware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine)

McCain takes Alabama... *Edit* And Georgia. Not surprising for either.

And McNaka... they actually ruined the election in 2000 because they called Florida before the polls were closed in the extremely rural, conservative West like in Tallahasee.