Brendan Rodgers Discussion Thread

No, it won't. Backpasses are the most dangerous for us, not daring through balls.

 

Actually thought Bernabei had some positives to take from that game. And more importantly looked more confident on the ball which slightly increased his efficiency.

still a long way to go but any progress at all whilst Taylor is out and he has to play is good

 

It’s only half the outfield players to be fair

 

I think you're being very selective in your evidence here. It's all about how you word it, isn't it? We could write the same stat that you've cited to say 'He played 5 games at the start of the season and only got 1 goal and 1 assist'. The general consensus among most (or at least, many) fans was he started poorly. Have a look at the Abada thread here for August/September, prior to the injury. No one is saying he's playing well, mostly the opposite.

It's fair to forget about preseason, results are not indicative or representative of competitive football. We could say Maeda started the season with a blinder because he scored a hatrick in a preseason game against Yokohama, but I'd say that's quite a spurious claim.

 

It’s not being selective. I’m not stating anything that isn’t fact. The truth is, his numbers between pre-season and the initial games of the season were very good. Something we have been accustomed to. It’s not like these all came in one game. They were over various games. So it’s not like your Maeda comparison at all.

Then he has come back from a lengthy injury and you are saying he has gotten worse under Rodgers because he has had a few stinkers. Which they have been by the way, I’m not arguing against that, but it’s not unusual for any player to struggle after such a long time out. Then we have the off field issues which could definitely be having an impact.

 

All you bed-wetters are playing right into the huns hands. They're teams no better than ours, we've outclassed them twice in fact.

They're on a roll now because they smell blood and their fans are getting right behind the team. We're struggling because * are hand wringing, moaning, booing the team.

* *, huge win at Easter road and most of you * are acting like we got pumped 3-0.

Stop crying about Ange, the transfer windows, CCV's knees. They're all gone now. Support the team that's on the pitch and we'll win the league.

 

That's very harsh on Scales, mate. He's not as good as some on ere think IMHO; but I definitely think he's already shown enough to say he's better than ordinary SPL level and he's doing OK.

The last point I do agree with and I have argued that very point; but it certainly hasn't been shown. It's just an interpretation a few of us (including you and me) have.

 

Is it an "either/or" situation, though. That goal Aberdeen scored was from a forward pass in their third.

 

They were the better team. We will always need a late winner sometimes or even drop points domestically, because luck will always play a role in results; what can't happen and what really worries me is 2 midtable SPL sides being a better team than us for a straight 135 minutes (3 halves) of football.

 

Okay, I think my point was lost on you. There are plenty of ways of getting the statistics or 'facts' to say what you want. Which is why I why I reworded your stat to say he only scored 1 and assisted 1 in 5 games against SPFL opposition. If you word it like this, his numbers don't look very good.

I had a quick glance at the BBC player ratings for the first 5 games of the season and he doesn't feature in the top 5 performers in any game. Also had a quick scan on the Abada thread on here for August/September and most comments suggest his overall contribution is lacking. Next to nothing indicates that Abada had a great start to the season, or that he was flying before his injury. I'm aware that this also isn't solid evidence, but it would suggest you're in the minority if you think he started the season very well.

I put him in my initial post you quoted because he has regressed substantially. He was out with a hamstring injury under Ange, and on his return he didn't look anywhere near as lacking as he does now. And yes, the conflict in Israel might be affecting him, but it's really on the manager to provide the adequate sport psychology and man management to help him, or even assess whether he's fit to play (mentally) in the first place.

 

Then well done to us. We've took 4 points off two teams that outplayed us in your opinion. Great success.

Wring out your underwear and get behind the team.

 

I think we were really lucky, especially against Hibs. We aren't going to be that lucky every week.

 

Our squad is weaker than last season, there’s no doubt about that. But three out of our top five best players last season, Kyogo, Hatate and Taylor looks like shadows of them selves this season. To me it looks like poor man management and lack of tactical knowhow to make the team tick.

Our pressing game as we knew it under Ange is completely gone, a tactic that was very effective when you want to grind SPFL teams down. Now we invite opposition to play in our half, which naturally cause more dangerous situations in our box. If Hibs had anyone half decent finishing those chances they got on Wednesday, that game wouldn't have ended in a win for us.

Our current tactic, which looks possession based (hard to tell these days) is not working with the players we have at hand. Most of the players looks clueless when attacking, all the runs in behind and movement around the ball carrier looks random and not part of a game plan.

 

The huns were lucky to beat Aberdeen, and they were playing at home. They * aren't going to be lucky every week either.

The difference is going to come down to whether we're cheering on the team, or we're sitting on our hands tutting and going "it wasn't like this under Ange".

We're still top of the table ffs. Can't believe some * have the cheek to call themselves Celtic supporters when they're nothing but many * unless we're winning 3-0 every week.

 

Behind a pay wall. Can't copy it from 12ft pay wall either.

Decent read. Bit of an eye opener.

 

You're right to an extent. Rodgers was shat on by the board - ie Peter * Lawwell- and of course that means all Celtic fans have also been shat on.

So now everybody from Rodgers down need to pull together and send Lawwell a massive GIRUY by winning the league.

But for that to happen Rodgers needs to show that he's now making the best of the (*) hand he's been dealt.

The fact that no supporters can see what his system is, is surely proof that he doesn't have the players to make his system work.

So he just has to bite the bullet and play a system that get's the best out of what he's got. If he doesn't do that he hasn't a chance of uniting the support behind him.

I never wanted him back, he was COMPLETELY the wrong person at the wrong time, but If I get a sense that's he's trying to win games, rather than trying to make an unworkable system work, I'll be right behind him.

But if I don't see that happening against St Mirren, then I want him to * out of here before the Killie game.

 

One of the themes of this season I’ve noted is how quick some in the support are to label Brendan Rodgers’s team style 'slow and ponderous'.

There is no doubt that some harbour resentment at his return to Celtic, given the midnight flit to Leicester City in February 2019. That is, there will be no pleasing some. Also, he is following a manager in Ange Postecoglou, who seemed to have discovered the cheat code for cracking Scottish domestic football, such was the elan with which the opposition was routinely put to the sword in a whirl of attacking football. The Australian is renowned for thrilling attacking football, as the English Premier League is discovering, as his Tottenham Hotspur career continues to build.

Also, Rodgers was undoubtedly focused on control in his first stint at Celtic Park. He used to talk about 'resting with the ball'. The connotation is that possession was not always with the intent to harm the opposition, but to allow the team to gather energy for the next onslaught whilst simultaneously tiring the opposition without the ball.


When we interviewed Dominic Wells on the Huddle Breakdown - a very talented data analyst who follows Leicester City - he was clear that in the four years of Rodgers's time there, he had developed tactical flexibility in delivering three consecutive top-eight finishes, an FA Cup and a European Conference League semi-final. I was encouraged by this and have therefore remained sceptical about the tropes laid on him.

I have also written about how the overall speed of play in the Scottish Premier League (SPFL) has increased quite markedly, or at least, perhaps the Opta data underpinning this has changed in terms of capture and calculation method. Celtic do get the ball forwards much less quickly than the other sides in the league, but quicker than they had under Postecoglou.

As Celtic hit a mini downturn in performances and results since the January break, this question comes up again. So, how to address it using data?

Pass intensity
The Opta direct speed data was certainly surprising and raised eyebrows with the other analysts I shared it with. Make of that what you will.

As I have mentioned speed of play data whether it be the pace individual players move or pass is quite sensitive and not usually available through the public data providers. A simple proxy is the number of passes attempted per 90 minutes. The assumption is that the higher the number the quicker the players are looking to move the ball.



What I have done is possession adjustment given that each season the team has a slightly different average possession metric. The possession-adjusted method is that used by Wyscout. Based on this method, here are the average passes attempted (from open play) per season

Celtic sought significantly more control of the ball under Postecoglou. However, when adjusted for possession, Celtic attempt more passes from open play this season than on any I have records for – eight more per match than last season.

The 'Horseshoe of Futility'

I few years ago, concerning the way Ronny Delia’s team attempted to overcome low blocks, I coined the phrase the 'Horseshoe of Futility'. That is, to pass from side to side back and wide around the opposition defence looking for opportunities. It is a phrase some used to describe Rodgers’s unfolding Celtic campaigns in 2017/18 and 2018/19.

I propose a simple measure for this to enable a horseshoe indicator to be devised. What proportion of the attempted passes comes from the centre-backs? This is not perfect by any means. Sometimes Celtic have played with three centre-backs notably under Neil Lennon. Secondly, it does not indicate 'safe' passing per se, so there is an underlying assumption that the more the centre-backs have the ball the less, relatively, the more creative full-backs and midfielders have it. That may not always hold true. Here are the results:

This is okay, as far as my eye test goes. In the first two seasons under Deila, the football was simply very slow all over the pitch. Since then, the horseshoe indicator has been lowest under Lennon in 2019/20 and highest under Rodgers in 2017/18 and this season. But again, this is not indicating speeds as much as the perception that if the centre-backs are heavily involved in the passing, then the ball is perhaps not being progressed forward quickly.





This shows that it was perhaps fair to label Rodgers Celtic in seasons two and three as somewhat ponderous. The horseshoe indicator was 27 per cent yet only around 10 per cent of all passes were pack passes – forward passes taking the opponent out of the game. This season, despite the highest horseshoe indicator at 30 per cent, 14 per cent of all passes are pack passes. This is slightly below Postecoglou’s very aggressive passing style.

Summary
The reality is that Celtic appears to be moving the ball quicker than ever, it is simply that the centre-backs are more heavily involved perhaps due to the preponderance of man-to-man marking across the SPFL. If we add this to the Opta data evidence, I think it is difficult to support ‘slow and ponderous’ despite the horseshoe trope having some truth.


My next thought is ‘What proportion of the passes are aggressive forward passes?’ I can measure this by showing the percentage of all passes that take opponents out of the game – pack passes

 

That's exactly what I'm talking about about. You're not supporting the team at all. You're just being a moany *.

If winning every week and playing all out attacking football is that important to you why don't you just go and support Man City? Seriously, why do you follow Celtic when it makes you this miserable even when we're top of the league?

 

Shame his tactics aren’t as good as his patter.