Not Actually that Crucial a Summer as of August 2023...beginning to now think everything isnt fine!

While the majority would like to see these so called "marquee signings" , the overwhelming majority want to see signings of PROVEN QUALITY. They're not one and the same thing.

We've literally spent decades rolling the dice against 1-3m pound players in the hope we unearth a gem. Unfortunately for us, that tactic is both a fallacy and utterly redundant in today's market. In most of the European markets, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany, England, three million buys *.
3 million in the Eastern European and Scandinavian leagues gets you a spl competitor, with a low probability of a European quality player.

About 4 years ago, on these boards, someone added up all these 1-4m pound signings and their hit rates.
It basically worked out that in something like a 15 year period we'd spunked close to a hundred million on absolute *.
The hit rate for signings over 4m was far more reliable.

Not every player in our squad needs to be signed over a 5m mark. But the chances of getting a dud are considerably lower if scoured properly.

We want proven quality.

We've been sticking to the same transfer strategy for decades now, and it's done brilliantly for the club's bottom line. But as far as team progression is concerned, it's been a complete non entity.

We're the exact same level of team right now we were when Rodgers was first here.
There's been zero progression in terms of on field competition. We're still expected to blow everyone away domestically, and struggle in Europe.

That's were thinking like yours has got us. Trapped in an endless loop of selling players for high fees, spunking those fees away on duds with a hit rate of about one decent player in 4, instead of scouting extensively, and making higher level informed signings.

We will NEVER progress as a team unless the powers that be decide to have a major rethink over how they invest in the playing squad.

We are very slowly but surely being left behind clubs of a similar level and size to our own. Who are progressing naturally with the times and the financial transfer climate.
We're still operating like MoN just left and we need to cut cloth.

 

Why?

 

Maybe me that's spoiled, but i can't help but feel underwhelmed. Holm and Lagerbielke are good signings imo, but i expected to see some absolute * bombs of signings when Brendan was announced as that was the biggest reason why he left in the first place that we showed to little ambition.

Not to late yet though. If we sign a very good replacement for Jota i will be happy, but a * good one. We can't simply sell a player like him and not bring in a new one on the same/higher level.

 

Only we never made a big loss on player trading from an accounting point of view as Jota, CCV, Bernabei and Maeda were all completed before the 1st of July 2022.

It is likely the same happened this summer with Holm (£2.5m) and Iwata (£0.8m) signed before 1st July 2023 and that taking our over all player trading for last year to around even maybe a slight surplus due to the Juranovic (£7.5m) and GG (£3.5m) sales. Prior to those and signing Oh (£2.8m),the interims showed we had brought in £1.7m and spent close to £6m.

Saying the above is correct we have lost Ange for £5m, sold Starfelt for £4.5-5m and sold Jota for £27m (with us keeping about £19-20m of that). We have also sold Urhoghide, Hazard, Otoo, Brooks, Soro and young guy who went to Villa which totals somewhere close to £1m.

So we have brought in £30m or thereabouts. The Ange money would have been in 22/23. So in this accounting period it would maybe be closer to £25m in, with around £5m surplus from player/ manager trading from previous year.

We have spent £4m on Nawrocki, £3m on Lagerbielke, £2m on Yang, £1.5m on Tilio and £0.8m on Kwon. So we have spent £11.3m or so in this accounting period.

Wages will be pretty neutral, rises for Kyogo, Maeda and McGregor plus the new signings balanced with all of those sold above; Barkas going and Mooy retiring. We have not signed anyone new that will be on a big wage for us. Where as Barkas, Mooy, Starfelt and Jota were all big earners.

Basically there is money there to be spent. There was £60m in the bank (£51m if adjusted for trade receivables on players vs what we owed).

That was before a net positive of £8.2m, (with potential to rise by a further £3.3m from add ons), taking our 22/23 player trading to +~£4m.

Then you’re looking at the bulk of that being spent on Holm and Iwata but another £5m positive from Ange going.

Then you have a balance this window of ~£13.8m.

Overall we will have made in the region of a £10-15m OPEX profit from CL involvement last year too, my estimate is closer to the top of that based on estimating costs and income relevant to the previous seasons.

Basically spending another £15-20m this window shouldn’t be out the question. Particularly when you consider Hatate, Abada, O’Riley, CCV and Johnston could all be sold for 8 figures in the not to distant future and we will likely make a £10m+ OPEX profit again in 23/24.

 

When you say £60m in the bank, is this taken from the mid-season interim accounts?

 

I can see one more signing coming in as a loan to buy or something and thats it.

Prove me wrong Celtic and I'll be happy.

The current squad will be shagged up and down the place in the champions league

 

Probably stretch to £25m if needed

 

The money is there for transfer fees. We should not be hellbent on this balancing our income vs expenditure every year. As if one year of spending a decent amount leaves us in financial turmoil.

If there is an opportunity to progress that reaps dividends further down the line through increased revenue or player sales then you make that investment. I think Nicholson realises this and is willing to push the boat out a bit more compared to his predecessors.

It’s not speculate to accumulate, it’s investing now to generate profit in the future. For Celtic profit is made by how successful we are, the better players we have the more successful we will be and the more money we make either on the field by winning league/european progression or through player sales are all connected.

 

Yes and I know we will make a loss in the second half of the season due to Euro income in the first half etc but even working that through based on estimates from previous seasons e.g our cost base tends to be evenly spread so doubling our 6 months costs gives you close to our total costs/expenses and forecasting an income based on the 2nd half of the season before.

Plus by the time they report the full 22/23 figures there will be season ticket money in for this year. So cash at bank will be higher likely than the £60m or at least £51m which took into account we owed more on transfers than we were due at the time of interims.

That position on transfer fees owed vs to be received would have been adjusted by our January - June transfer business, which would have saw a surplus in the region of £10-12m generated from JJ, GG and Ange going out with Iwata, Oh and Holm being signed.

A lot of balancing different incomes and outgoings in there and obviously we need our new season ticket money for the 23/24 season but even taking the cash at bank to one side and purely focusing on transfer business there is a surplus of around £15m which would only bring our transfer business to break even so spending £15-20m should not be out the question from the position we find ourselves in.

Edit: that is also not taking into account the Japanese tour additional revenue from not having Qualifiers.

 

Legitimately some of our supporters talk about the clubs finances like they are peter lawwell..

In our best financial position ever, and warning about overspending.

 

More money to invest in other parts of the club, the barrowfield development for example, man city invested £200 million in their Etihad campus a decade ago, while we obviously can't afford that, it may well be worth spending more than the £20 million that is currently being talked about it. We should be aiming to have one of the best youth academies in the world

 

2 weeks to go....make it happen lads.

 

I would be very surprised if the club were taking £20m off the cash reserves for this project, and even if we are self financing it then it won’t be in one year, the project will be at least 2 years and probably paid via financing of some sorts over a lot longer period of time.

It would be almost unheard of for a capital project of that nature to just be funded by money in a company as a lump sum.

 

Man city spent £200 million, not £20 million, or are you saying £20 million t's a drop in the ocean for us?

Man city was simply an example of what can be spent on such developments. So if we can push the boat out for say £40 million then that might be more worthwhile than say two £10 million signings

Even with champions league, clubs like Ajax and benfica still profit from player trading, so I can't see us straying to far from that model

 

That kid doesn’t play for Livingston; plays/played for leicester and is only livi by birth although he’s now choosing to play for the French youth teams

 

We will always stay within our means, we’ve been to close to the edge and we watched the other club fall off so I think that sits in their minds

 

At the end of a storm there’s a golden sky. Keeper, left winger and a left back 1st team ready in today. (Not ITK just thinking positive thoughts ) Oh and * it an experienced back up striker