Poker Thread

i stopped playing online poker i dont trust it not saying its a fix but some of the things ive seen happening was unreal. played on v.c & pokerstars for years.

 

Why what have I said thats not true? I've been playing that game for a long time and anyone who denies there is a massive amount of luck attached to it is fooling themselves.

Spot on mate.

 

Apologies! I misread - I thought the push was preflop. You obviously got unlucky.

No offence intended but there is not a single statistic ever recorded to back this up. Every single mid stakes and above player now plays with a host of number crunching software that gives a detailed analysis of every stat you could possible watch. It it wasnt a fair game, the numbers would stick out a mile. Note, if you are a regular mid stakes player at stars with a decent history they will send you a full history on request and even do a bit of number crunching on your behalf. The only players that ever hold this opinion are bad players.

And to say poker is "95% luck" doesnt begin to make sense. I think you are just pulling a random number out of thin air. If you arent, where do you get that figure from?

There are many many good player making a regular living playing the game. I did it for years and I was decent but far from great. I had two losing months in over 3 years, and my * those were sick months! That doesnt mean you win every hand, it simple means you play enough hands to ride the natural variance of the game (im talking hundreds of thousands).

What you have seen isnt unreal. It is perfectly explainable. No offence, but you are just witnessing standard deviations that you dont understand.


Sorry chaps if any of this sounds harsh, but this argument winds me up like no other! Put simply, it would be incredibly easy for someone to datamine millions and millions of poker star hands and crunch probability stats to see if they are out of line. All mid and high stakes players do this as part of the job. And not one has found anything to suggest "unreal" numbers.

 

@Smithy, I play on Pokerstars and Paddypower. Paddypower is full of fish, but I enjoy playing on PokerStars more.

Pretty much everything you've said in this thread so far.

"It is true otherwise if there were "good" players there would be the same people winning on a regular basis and that just does not happen."

Are you serious? I could reel off about 100 names of famous poker players who win on a regular basis, and those are just the ones we watch on television/youtube. There are thousands of professional poker players.

"One thing that has remaimed true is that it is 95% luck."

The only thing that is luck is what cards you are dealt. How you play the hand is down to you. In a lifetime of playing poker, Doyle Brunson will have been dealt the same percentage of good and bad hands as anyone else, and yet he's used it to make millions of dollars from people who haven't just been extremely unlucky. They're just not as skilled.

"Sorry but pushing all in against the chip leader on a pair of 9's on online poker is total * stupidity."

Have you ever gotten towards the end of a 180 man tournament? When it comes to the point where the smallest bet you can make is 1/2 of the average chip stack, all-ins become extremely common. I felt that I was the favourite to win the pot, I went all-in, I was correct. Being a 92% favourite on the flop when all-in is not a bad situation to be in.

 

OP going all-in with K9 and only a pair of 9's is suicide. 10, J, Q, A pair beats you.

You talk about 95% favourite etc but there's no way you knew he had pocket 8's. The guy got lucky with 3OAK but that's just how it pans out sometimes.

I certainly wouldn't have went all in with you had I only had 8's and a 9 was on the table but that's just how I play.

The amount of times I have folded pocket pairs on the flop only for it to come out in the turn or the river would surprise you.

Once had a 10 6 but some fish raised big pre-flop and I folded thinking my hand was * anyway. Flop brings out three 10's and one of the guys bluffed his way to the pot.

Was * raging at that!

 

In the latter stages of a tournament, all-ins are what it's all about. He was going to need pocket 10s or better to have the advantage, and he'd have pushed if he had it. I knew i had a considerable advantage and when the blinds are high enough that your stack will be gone in a few big blinds, you need to take risks. It's the only way to win a tournament.

Small pocket pairs should only really be played when you can see the flop cheaply and stacks are deep. You can only expect to make a set around 1 in 7.5 times so you want them to make a big pair or 2 pair so you can break them.

10 6 is a trash hand, it happens numerous times a day that you would have had the nuts if you'd played a trash hand, but it's still correct to fold them. A lot of people place too much value in hands such as a6 or K7 too, which are trash hands that should usually be folded.

 

Ffs. You have just made my point about the amount of different winners there are. If it was not luck involved it would be the same small core of players winning the big tournaments. It doesnt happen.

Yes I have and you have again enhanced what I said. You put your entire chip stack, against the leader no less, in the pot on the luck of the draw. With a mid range pair at that.

 

Luck, or rather variance, is of course a significant factor in poker. But it is a significant factor in many games and sports. It doesnt mean it is a game based on luck or "95%" luck as you said earlier. This just seems like a completely made up number.

Think of any high varience game, take golf for example. Tiger Woods or Rory McIlroy are rarely if ever odds on to win a tournament: so most tournaments it is more likely that they will not win than win based on the variation of the game. That isnt important. What is important is that they consistency get to cash paying positions and they win far more than average. Poker is no different. It is effectively mathematically impossible to win every game over the long term - you can still be a consistent winner, and luck has little to do with that.

I think it was Greg Raymer was said: "One game of poker is 100% luck. One year of poker is 100% skill". Not true in a literal sense of course but I think it is very apt.

 

Seen this one the other day

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/03/poker-fraud-arrest-idINL2E8I2G3W20120703

I don't think I'll be depositing into the online poker any time soon.

 

(1) What's to say he didn't have an A9?
(2)You went all in after the flop. Pocket 8's were not a high risk. They were a bet you didn't have a 9.
(3) Very nice odds there. Not got a clue what it means. Play the hand you have. Pair of 9's is NOT a good hand.
(4) I only folded a 10 6 because some fish raised big pre-flop. Anyone that raises big pre-flop is an idiot. If I had gone in with them then I would have won hands down. Some folk like to just go all in with anything but not me. Raising the bets pre-flop is a subtle way of uping the ante but raising 10-15 times the big blind is a pain in the *. I hate anyone that thinks "oh I have a Jack...all in"

 

Thank you!

Was begining to think I wasn't seeing something the OP was.

Truth is had he just raised for the turn and seen the river he would have still gone all in and lost. You just don't see pocket pairs no matter how good you are.

:bbpd:

 

If he'd had A9 no way would he have called the big blind at this stage of the tournament with the blinds so high. A9 is a hand that I wouldn't play in a low stakes ring game outside of the blinds/late position. It's a trash hand, a hand that is played by beginners because of the Ace, but is a bad hand to play.

Are you suggesting that in this situation, a pair of 9s is not a good hand? Haha, how much money have you made playing poker if you don't mind me asking? If you don't wish to answer, fair enough because I wouldn't answer that question.

Are you saying that you would have played 10 6 outside of the big blind? The amount of times I've folded 7 2 and the flop was 772 is quite a lot, but it doesn't make it the wrong decision. A raise to 3 or 4 times the big blind in a cash game is about the standard, but it seems as though you're comparing cash games with latter-stage tournament play.

The facts are, he called the big blind (NOT a raise), which suggests that he didn't have pocket 10s or better, he then checked the flop (which in this situation there is no need for a check-raise from a good player, suggesting he was not confident of his hand, ruling out a set), I put him on a worse hand than mine and I was right. I'll take being all-in with the odds that much in my favour any time I can get it.

 

OP played the hand completely the correct way, the only luck involved was the guy that went all in with 8s when he should have known at that stage he was beaten, the 2 lads talking about this not being the correct play are crazy!
My biggest tourny win had 500 people in it and I win smaller tournaments on a daily basis, and in that situation the all in was a no brainer and should have won the hand.

 

Chaps,

The real answer, and only sensible answer as regards the play in question, is that it depends. It depends on many things: the players history with the opponent, the stack to pot ratio, the villians pre-flop ratio (and what actually happened pre-flop!), his calling range, the players pre-flop play and his flop stats.

Giving an opinion on how someone played a hand when you only know about 10% of the information available doesnt really make sense

 

I play regularly 18, 27, 45 and 180 man sngs on pokerstars and have decent results over a large sample. Sometimes dabble in mtts but the variance is a killer.

OP if you want a proper answer to your hand then your better posting on a poker forum. Theres a really good one where all the best players post, not sure if im allowed to post it on here but I can PM you if you want.

My take on the hand is that top pair king kicker is not even close to being good enough to stack off with that deep in a tourney against the big stack. The pay structure is far too top heavy and you could pick a much better spot against the smaller stacks.

And I dont recommend quiting your job to play full time, the variance is far too stressful especially for mtts and even really good players have thousand game BE and losing stretches. It will kill your love for the game and its far better to use the money to buy things like holidays and nice gear rather than worrying about paying your rent.

oh and people who are claiming its mostly luck are talking out their arses.

 

Poker?

I don't even know her!

 

cant remember if you said you raised pre-flop or after( assuming its after ) but i would of played the K9 ( i would of played the 88 also, depending on how betting went and if i was bb ).

if you went all in, then depending on how big your stack is vs his, then he might of been prepared to take the chance. obviously if your similar size stacks then it would be crazy, but sometimes it pays off.

just sounds to me you had a really * bit of luck, no point debating about it all, everyone gets it. for every ridiculous hand you lose, youl end up winning one, or have won one at some point, it happens. it * sucks when it does, and is totally gut wrenching, but thats the game!

 

I know man, i've lost plenty in a similar manner but it's jusr the worst time for it to happen. Obviously i shouldn't have been playing above my bankroll but i took a chance and it was gutting the way i lost. We were similar stack sizes, he had a few thousand more than me. He would've had enough to get him a couple of bb's if he'd not hit the 8.

I've been lucky in similar situations but never at such an important time. Just gotta get on with it really, i'm back up to the bankroll i started with now and i don't think i'll be playing tournaments with such big buy-ins again.

I'm not considering playing professionally, i just meant i could leave the * job i'm currently in until i find a better one, the money would have supported me.

@ynwa, i think i know the forum you mean and i'm a lurking member. Pm me it anyway though just in case, cheers

 

How much was the buy in and what was 1st place shootthepoet?

 

OP lost on a pair of 9's to a guy that had pocket 8's and an 8 on the river.

Had an 8 and 9 came out in the flop this guy would still have taken you out with you thinking a K9 wins it.

You cant predict pocket pairs and whether the three of a kind comes out in the flop, turn or river doesnt change the way some players will play pocket pairs i.e they will check to avoid giving away a big hand.

Most players WILL gamble to the river. Checking on the flop was just a good way of bluffing you and it WORKED. Whether that's luck or not is irrelevant when playing cards unless youre Rainman.

I fail to see what my Poker career has got to do with it