'Honest' mistakes 24/25

Absolutely brilliant analysis by Alan Morrison (CelticByNumbers) on ACSOM



Clear evidence of the pattern of referee decisions favouring the Rangers over the last 3-8 years.

 

This is really excellent. Been hoping someone with a data background had the time to do this for years. I listened to the podcast but even better on YouTube to see the referenced data

 

Any chance of a recap? That's a long video.

 

In short, if you consider key refereeing stats over a decent sample period, there are some very odd statistical outliers in favour of rangers. Some of the outliers are really big outliers from a statistical perspective.

As interesting was that Morrison offered his analysis to all main stream media outlets in Scotland and although none challenged the methodology employed or the data, they still wouldn't publish or discuss it due to a feeling that it wouldnt be in their "commercial interests"

All his data is publicly available so would be interesting to know if Celtic use this kind of stuff in their discussion with the league officials (they discuss this as well).

 

Just in terms of the smell test, it makes sense. I genuinely thought for a long time the refereeing bias situation had improved a lot in Scotland, to the point where I no longer thought it was an issue. Then it seemed to get bad again from nowhere. Now I read that this Crawford Allen guy who just "resigned" started around that time.

 

It is long but definitely worth getting stuck in to..

I bang that cheating drum a lot and this only strengthens my beliefs of what I and many others have/are seeing year on year..

No moonhowling. Alan Morrison dishing it all out in such a way that explains just how much one club especially is being disproportionately officiated for. Gives a breakdown on all of the differences statistically and the seasons it ramps up even more (10iar, direct entry to champions league etc)..

Paranoid but..

Fair play again. That was an excellent watch and well put together..

 

Shocking state of affairs when msm won't touch it due to the mouth frothing, statement loving, butcher apron * mutants threaten you at every opportunity.

Love listening to Alan Morrison. Explains things clearly and with ease. All backed up by data and and stats. Even deniers can't argue with it, as it multiple data sources, over multiple years. So you can easily swat away any "aye but Celtic get penalties anaw" or "you's win everything and still moan tae *."

It's well worth a listen to. Skip to 15mins amd go from there.

But its irrefutable now, that there is a clear pattern of a assistance. And it all spiked starting from the 10iar season, and continued during the years of automatic CL qualification. And now more than ever with the biggest pot ever for the winners of the league.

Horrible kulture and something that won't change unless fans and clubs demand it.

 

That video is wild. Fully proves the refs are at it. Suspicious the stats are all lining up and the head boss is quitting. He knows he's been rumbled and is jumping before an actual headline news company takes the story on. What a country, its not in there commercial interest to show the truth. * *.

 

Just from the eye test I've never believed that Celtic are well or badly treated by referees in general, though I do believe individuals can be biased. I think most our our stats are explainable and our results and dominance make us statistical outliers in the context of world football. Its hard to therefore see any trends in refereeing decisions and weigh them against our long term dominance.

The lack of decisions given against rangers however is clearly something other than random variance. Especially over a period in which every team bar one was being overly punished by Var. Morrison's data felt very similar to my intuition as regards them not suffering negative decisions.

 

Aye when he brushes over the dominant team in other leagues, you expect the stats to show in their favour - more pens, reds in their favour etc - looking at your LSG, Jive, Bayern etc.

But that's not the same in Scotland, it's actually the second team that are by far the outlier and even then some compared to other leagues. Not the dominant team.

It'd be like Lyon getting everything in their favour, Dortmund etc.

It's wild that the stats over the course of now 3 years is blatantly showing it up.


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That second penalty in the Newcastle game is absolutely mind blowing

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More like 60 years

 

Hibs player already in the air, eyes fixed on the ball, and soutter jumps into him. Outcome, pen to the huns. Couldn't make it up.

 

As I have maintained for months, the officials coupled with the 8 points dropped in 4 games pre Christmas is what will cost us this season

 

Early as well. Hmmm.

 

I just saw that. Apparently it actually is a penalty in the rules from what I've seen people saying. The game is broken.

 

This is a good example of a penalty given that when the SFA review at a later date they will argue it was the correct decision because the rules allow it to be given.

But I just don't believe the same penalty would be given had it happened the other way round.

And if asked to review the hypothetical decision not to give hibs the very same penalty the SPFL would argue the ruling is correct as the rules allow it not to be given.

Also see pretty much every Goldson handball in the box from the last 12-18 months. Particularly regarding hand balls the rules effectively give almost complete discretion to referees. It makes it very hard to challenge in a meaningful way

 

So the SFA thought Beathun got the VAR calls ain't the game at Tynecastle 3 weeks ago "spot on"

More evidence as to why we probably won't win the league. Rotten to the * core.

 

Actually thought the guy was lucky to stay on the pitch, he swung down, fist clenched, looked like it was meant to leave one on him I think.

Dunno how the rest of the game was though, only watched highlights, I’d be screaming for it if that’s us. Was steaming seeing it though so may revisit that opinion