Dermot Desmond

I'm not holding my breath m8

 

The fact that he was at the Galway races whilst we were on the end of another humiliating CLQ exit says it all. At the end of the day, we are his plaything and if he had any intentions of helping to sort out this sinking ship, he’d have acted by now. Get him and the rest of them as far away from our club as possible.

 

OK, let's get real here. And not just directing this to @Trequartista but anyone else who has pie in th esky dreams about ousting DD & the current Board.

I read in this thread that 'fan ownership' amounts to roughly 19%. I don't think it is as high as that and can find no source that supports that, but let's go with that figure.

Which means that roughly 31.1% would be required for the 'fan ownership' to band together and have a controlling interest in the club. At the current market value of Celtic on the stock exchange is roughly £106m, meaning at current value of £1.06 per ordinary share, would need approx £36m in order to buy that amount of shares - if any seller would be willing to part with their holdings at that value. They are certainly not going to sell for less, but especially if they are in this for a profit, then it means paying over the odds.

And that is before taking into account those who currently own those shares being willing to part with them.

When that list includes the likes of Michael Lindsell & Nick Train (who also have significant holdings in Man U, Juventus, and other tech and sporting brands), John J Fisher (who owns Oakland A's MLB team, the San Jose Earthquake in the MLS & whose family own The Gap & H&M among others), Chris Trainer (former owner of Forrest Media) & James Mark Keane (a big noise in the wool trade & industry) etc, then it makes it even less and less likely.

Unlike over at Ipox where they just simply print more shares anytime they want, which does nothing but dilute the value of their shareholdings while fleecing their fans, and there is no mechanism to do that at Celtic.

So the only way to acquire those shares is to buy them from existing shareholders, and I've named a number of them with significant shareholdings above. And logic dictates that in that situation the seller's can pretty much sell at a price that suits them if they are even willing to sell at all, which means paying way over the odds.

So that £36m is in reality more a conservative estimate a smidge under £50m needed to bankroll to make it even remotely attractive enough to tempt those who hold those significant blocks within their portfolios. And probably a lot more, especially the closer get to the target the premium rises accordingly, where could be looking at double or treble the value, and starting a proxy war for control of Celtic in the process.

If anyone has that sort of bank balance, can I have a loan?

And again, anyone with that sort of financial clout, are they willing to cross those that would have to be crossed in order to do this?

As recently as 23 March this year, Desmond told the Scottish Financial Review that he was catagorically not interested in selling any of his holdings in Celtic. So that is a non-starter. That takes his 37.4% off the table in terms of where to buy the shares from. And presuming the other shareholders that are also on the Board account for about 11% give or take.

They are not going to sell without a fight, which anyone who recalls trying to oust the Whytes & Kelly's in the 90's was tough enough - and that was at a time when the club was on the brink, instead of being in a pretty healthy financial state.

What makes it all the more unlikely, is that literally any of the shareholders I listed above could effectively side with Desmond and the Board, refuse to sell their holdings and block this. Without them having to spend penny one, it would be game over for fan ownership.

But let's live in la la land a little longer. For argument's sake, let's say that all of those were willing to sell. They wouldn't, but let's say they are.

So with those on the Board controlling 48.4% (between DD, Thomas Eardley Allison & the holdings of others on the Board, the 'fan ownership' currently about 19% (if true - and that's a big if...), then it would take somehow for the fans getting their hands on 31.1% of the remaining 32.6%, and again, the closer to obtaining that, the higher the premium existing sellers would want for them.

Nevermind it would effectively be triggering a proxy war for control of Celtic.

By contrast, Desmond and the existing board members with significant holdings would only need about tp buy 1.7% outwith their current holdings to total 50.1% at which point all efforts to 'fan ownership' is pointless. And they have the clout and the bank balance to buy that at a virtual moments notice.

That is the reality of that.

Besides, fan ownership is not always the utopia that some on here seem to think that it would be. Barcelona is fan owned and look at the mess they are in at the moment.

 

This has saved me asking many questions! I really don’t understand shares and how they work.

I’m not convinced on fan ownership but not against it either. I’m just not entirely sure how it’d work with too many people involved and all would have different ideas and so on.

On raising the £50mil though, it’s not entirely unrealistic just fans would have to be willing to do something for a season they probably wouldn’t want too. If, instead of buying a season ticket, 50,000 fans, on average, bought £1000 worth of shares, they’d have £50million. A season ticket ranging from £500 to about £1k? If that, for the majority and for “vip” or boxes going up to 10s of thousands, it’s possible fans could do it.

Getting the shareholders to sell is another question.

 

That is the point. On both those fronts.

1. If the fans did try to band together to do as you suggest, it would take a lot of planning, time and coordination to raise that sort of sum - and as I said, that would be a very conservative estimate. Just regarding the time it would take to raise that, which wouldn't be insignificant. And that would be just the beginning.

On the other hand Desmond (or any of those that I've mentioned) have more than enough capital ready at a moment's notice to buy just 1.7% they would need without having to dip too deep into their pocket.

2. As outlined, trying to get hold of 31.1% of a possible 32.6% is a tough ask (a tick over 95% of all those shares), any way you want to slice it. And when literally any one of 4-5 single shareholders have enough to make that impossible anyhow, it effectively means that all of those would essentially be willing to forgo their effective veto on such a move.

For what it is worth, Barcelona has roughly 140,000 socio (members) who contribute to and maintain their 'owning' status of their club each year, and even then they have to still elect a Board & President each year, (just as our shareholders are eligible to do for the Chairman & Board at Celtic AGMs), to look after their club's operations etc.

It's not like those 140,000 odd people can all just pick up the phone any time they like and the club will take their call, and demand so-and-so a player be transfered or brought in or a particular sponsor is ethically unsuitable, etc.

The last figures I came across had were in 2019/20 (pre-Covid), there were roughly 141,000 socios - and not including carnet de compomis socios (which still costs €144 annually) or through a penya (kind of like a supporter's club), both of which need to be for 3 consecutive years before becoming eligible to be a full socio (the 140,000 full members that I was talkign about) with voting rights etc. And there is no way to fast track that. Have to do the 3 years.

After their 3 years of 'recognized affiliation' (for lack of a better term), they are eligible to become a proper socio. Each of these pay approx €180-190 every year, which gives a small discount at the store, and occasional discount for matchday tickets - NOT including season tickets which still have to pay full whack - but do get Barcelona TV for free, so there is that...

And if for whatever reason let it slip and have to start all over.

Also, all these dues have to be paid in full between a June & October window. Miss a payment or out of that window and it's start all over again. So it's not like it can be paid for gradually over the course of the season, like with a ST. This generates roughly €25m each season in addition to ST's etc. Let alone however much more that they get through the carnet de compromis or penyas, before they become full socio.

In 2016/17 the average season ticket cost €1097 and have 85,000 ST holders. No idea what it is now, but that was roughly €90m.

That is what their fans as 'owners' put in each and every year on top of TV money, prize money etc. And yet, look at the mess they are in right now. Just because the fans own the club, doesn't change that the club still needs to be run properly, as its not like all 140,000 odd get a say in every decision the club makes. They get to vote annually and occasionally if there is a referendum (change the club crest, start having a sponsor on the shirt etc) a say in those as well, but it's a stiff hike. And these socio numbers fluctuate each and every year. No idea what impact and the current mess has had on the socio numbers for this year. If people have lost their jobs through the pandemic, they may have other priorities than being a socio. If those numbers dip too much it has a direct impact on the club as well, so it is all about maintaining a certain level of supporters contributing like this, each and every year.

Celtic does have a worldwide fan base, but even if fan ownership became a reality and all th wildest dreams of those advocating for this came true, it's still a uphill battle. Going on the model that Barcelona uses, that would mean a pretty stiff hike in ST prices (not getting to Barcelona level prices obviously, but even still they also have a vastly larger stadium), annual dues & everything else, without taking into consideration the vast different prize and TV revenues due to being one of the biggest vlubs in a vastly bigger league etc.

 

What I can never understand, is that we brought Rodgers in and saw what happened, back to back cl qualification, record sales on merch, st, crowds to welcome him, sponsorship increased, everything went ten fold.

We literally went from a turnover of £52-54million under deila to over £100million with Rodgers in charge, that wasn't just champions League money, which would only have made up approx (at best) another £25-30mill from the previous seasons Europa efforts.

Literally, when the club do things right, they can bank another £20million from fans, sponsors, match day, all that stuff.

So, why the * are they so tight as * and adamant on doing things so cheaply. Time and time again.

It's honestly like they get a sick laugh out of it.

Folk talk about they (kind of) want a competitive Hun side as it drives down our European expectations to just being domestic, but that's not true.
We demand European football as well, regardless.
But either way, Huns or no Huns, these fans are always here if the club do the right thing.


This actually could have went into the board thread as well.

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It's just plain incompetence and lazy is what it is though.

End of the day, the least effort Desmond and the board need to put in to turn a profit (size of profit doesn't matter), the * better.

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I agree with the notion of fan ownership being the utopia in an ideal world but I wasn’t actually referring to fan ownership specifically when I said that these folk need to get away from our club.

I’m not clued up on the shares issue and the business side of the club so won’t try and pretend that I do. To me, the biggest shareholders in the club would actively try and continually improve the asset they’ve invested in, in order to increase the value of their shares. Maybe that’s putting it in a very simplistic way but that’s what I would think.

All I want is for those with the most shares and those on the board of our club to run our club with the club’s best interests at the forefront. It’s very apparent that they are only in it for self-gain and I feel we are now bearing the fruits of their neglect and ineptitude.

 

Desmond right now does not want to sell? Fine. The fans have to make him change his mind. Make him feel unwelcome as a shareholder.

 

Honestly * hate this reptile.

 

Everyone of your points are valid and fact based but you havent focussed on what might be possible for us to achieve ?
People like Desmond and others on the board are obviously in buisness for profit but also ego has a big part as well , nobody likes bad publicity as it nearly always brings scrutiny at the very least from media/tabloids etc .
That then gets the attention of other potential suitors or at the very least forces the board into action of some sort !!
Like to wager if the protests about the running of the club ramped up the next week or two we would see some money spent albeit maybe not as much as we would like.

 

Looks like Des is struggling to find free Transfers & Loan options this window.

 

Perhaps if the stupid * wasn't at Golf courses and racing tracks he'd have more luck. Disgusted at how we're a play thing for the rich. Only needed a right back for over a year. Not even close to signing one.

 

The thing is, many of the teams we have been put out by have spent a fraction of what we have. Midtjylland, AEK, and so on.

Its not just about the money we spend, but our strategy as a whole.
Even the boards insistence in choosing the coaching team is undermining the managers who are in charge.

we also lose millions from failing to move players on when the time is right. Boyata and Ntcham, two we could have taken in good money for, left for free. That is criminal.
We also give players new deals, better deals when their best days are behind them or they are no longer what they once were. Rogic and Griffiths come to mind there.

We need progressive, forward thinking people making the decisions. I think Desmond wants too much control and too much power and its clearly hindering us.

 

Yes, I take your point, @celticdawg about the power of protest and the impact and effect it can potentially have. Although in Desmond's case it wouldn't be his first brush with controversy and has emerged through intact.

I am not saying doing nothing because fan ownership is in all practicality a futile proposition. It is a disgrace the way that things have been allowed to get to the situation we find ourselves in and am equally frustrated with how we seem unable to start getting moving in the right direction again. After all, this is why there is a Board in the first place, to oversee the general direction of the club, while the executive (Dom McKay) looks after the day to day operations and decision making.

But as to why the Board (incl Desmond) seemingly chose to sit on their hands while we as a club are going nowhere is as much a mystery to me as it is to anyone.

The first step is obvious, even to someone as blind as.. well, me, lol... and is possibly the easiest to fix. Get busy in the transfer market. Bring in some fresh faces that are ready and hungry. This brings with it it's own groundswell of positivity and get some results on the park. Once that is done McKay can look into his modernization all he wants, but the more immediate problem needs to be treated as the priority.

 

Can’t wait till this old rabid Fritzl lookalike * is away from our club aswell as his wee cronies

 

Excellent post.

Also, don't you have to offer to buy all shares if you obtain majority control of shares ?

Fans group won't ever be in that position.

Rather than buying shares maybe the fans group and supporters should be putting pressure on large shareholders to pass the voting rights to them.

 

Think Desmond’s right at the very limit for that. Pretty sure he actually managed to get the PLC rules changed to allow him to buy more without triggering needing to buy the rest…